Dashboard
Model performance, risk assessment, and weather overview
Best R²
0.730
Operational model (May-Oct)
Highest Risk
Victoria / Oats
Probability: 89%
Watch List
10 items
Crop-region combinations
Coverage
75.2%
Conformal prediction (α=0.2)
R² by Forecast Window
Model performance improves with more lead time
RMSE by Forecast Window
Lower is better — error decreases with more lead time
Risk Distribution
High Risk: 2Medium Risk: 5Low Risk: 5
Conformal Prediction
Prediction interval coverage & width
Regional Climate
Avg rainfall & temperature by region
Watch List — Top 10 At-Risk Combinations
| # | Region | Crop | Probability | Shortfall (t/ha) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Victoria | Oats | 89% | 0.45 | critical |
| 2 | New South Wales | Lupins | 82% | 0.38 | critical |
| 3 | Western Australia | Canola | 76% | 0.28 | warning |
| 4 | South Australia | Barley | 71% | 0.30 | warning |
| 5 | New South Wales | Wheat | 68% | 0.25 | watch |
| 6 | Victoria | Wheat | 65% | 0.45 | watch |
| 7 | Queensland | Wheat | 61% | 0.22 | watch |
| 8 | South Australia | Canola | 58% | 0.18 | watch |
| 9 | Tasmania | Oats | 52% | 0.15 | watch |
| 10 | Western Australia | Lupins | 48% | 0.20 | watch |